A Sigh of Relief for Italy: No Recession

Economic forecasts outlined by the European Commission offer an undoubtedly more optimistic picture throughout Europe, despite the less than reassuring scenarios of the war in Ukraine and the energy and food crisis. Italy showed strong resilience and managed to avoid the spectrum of the recession based on its first quarter of 2023, confirming data and estimates which had been collected at the end of last year. In fact, the gross domestic product is growing by 0.8% and a growth of 1% is expected during 2024.

Therefore, there is an air of trust and greater serenity thanks to a reduction in the price of energy, the growth of services (mainly pulled up by tourism), consumption holding, and the resumption of investments. Industrial production has also clearly resumed, with exports that remain stable. However, there has been a slight drop in the construction sector. The reduction of energy prices also determined the inflexion of inflation.

Istat data for the month of January 2023 recorded an increase in the national consumer price index of 0.1% on a monthly basis and 10% on an annual basis. Therefore, initial estimates highlight a clear attenuation of inflation which, for 2023, is 5.2% for the general index and 3.2% for the basic component.